XOM (XOM)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Neutral

Exxon Mobil is considered NEUTRAL because its expensive valuation and high volatility are offset by a green validation flag and no red alerts.

  • The stock's PE percentile of 88.7% and PB percentile of 100% label it as expensive, with a current PE of $22.13.
  • Volatility is high, with an IV rank of 88.2% (labeled high), and the stock is 98.8% away from its buy zone, which is in the far bucket.
  • On the positive side, both the valuation and overall signals have a green validation flag, and there are zero red alerts, lending some stability.
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

$151.95 $76.44 engine floor
far above at floor

XOM is far above the floor (~98.8% above) — adding here means paying a premium vs. your own threshold. Wait or take partial position only with a strong directional view. valuation expensive (89th percentile)

Macro context

Across past macro events, XOM 5d reaction has been net positive +0.7%
13 event categories · 107 samples · 56 up / 41 down · macro-beta evidence only
Per-category detail · macro beta breakdown
fed-fomc-rate-cycle → avg 5d +0.8% 12 samples · 6 up / 6 down
taiwan-strait-tension → avg 5d +2.2% 12 samples · 8 up / 3 down
oil-shock → avg 5d +0.9% 10 samples · 6 up / 4 down
us-china-tariff-escalation → avg 5d -0.5% 10 samples · 2 up / 5 down
big-ipo-event → avg 5d -2.0% 9 samples · 2 up / 7 down
bank-crisis → avg 5d -0.3% 8 samples · 4 up / 3 down
big-tech-earnings-shock → avg 5d +1.2% 7 samples · 4 up / 2 down
election-uncertainty → avg 5d +0.8% 7 samples · 3 up / 2 down
natural-disaster → avg 5d +3.6% 7 samples · 6 up / 1 down
pandemic-emergency → avg 5d -3.3% 7 samples · 3 up / 3 down
sovereign-debt-crisis → avg 5d +0.2% 7 samples · 4 up / 2 down
china-property-crisis → avg 5d +2.4% 6 samples · 4 up / 2 down
russia-ukraine-war → avg 5d +4.9% 5 samples · 4 up / 1 down
Vs sector ETF (XLE, 5d)
-2.7pp lagging sector
XOM +0.3% Sector benchmark XLE +3.1%
Macro-beta evidence: how this ticker historically reacted to broad macro shocks. Not a thesis-level call — for that, you have to read the news and decide.

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

Sign in to see which rules are firing on XOM in your portfolio.
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VALUATION

Expensive
Trailing P/E
22.1
5-yr percentile: 89%
P/B
2.4
5-yr percentile: 100%
p10
8.0
p25
11.0
p50
13.1
p75
16.0
p90
22.6

XOM appears fully valued, with a trailing P/E at the 89th percentile and P/B at the 100th percentile, despite modest revenue decline and -11% earnings growth. The forward P/E of 14.6x suggests the market is still pricing in a recovery, offering no clear margin of safety given negative growth trends. The biggest risk is that deteriorating earnings meet the elevated valuation, pressuring the stock as reality catches up.

Sufficient earnings data; P/E historical percentile directly measures overvaluation or undervaluation

Floor Engine

marginal USD 151.95 Confidence low
discount-to-floor: 1.99×
VALUATION low
USD 76.44
PE reverts to historical 5th-percentile (extreme undervaluation)
PB medium
USD 43.30
P/B reverts to historical 10th-percentile (asset-driven businesses)
PSR medium
USD 0.08
PSR reverts to historical 10th-percentile (growth stocks pre-stable-earnings)
CYCLICAL PE medium
USD 101.99
PE reverts to historical 30th-percentile (cyclicals; 30th not 5th to avoid trough-bias)
Energy/materials cyclical — uses 30th-pct PE to avoid trough-bias

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 31.0% HV (30D) 31.3% IV RANK (1Y) 88 HIGH
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

XOM
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
+0.24%
Avg Day%
-0.77%
Up Hit Rate
50%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-07-31
in 51d
24-08
24-11
25-01
25-05
25-08
25-10
26-01
26-05
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-05-01 BMO 1.00 +12.5% -1.11% -1.02% -6.32%
2026-01-30 BMO 1.53 -7.7% -1.26% +0.63% +6.08%
2025-10-31 BMO 1.88 +3.0% -0.62% -0.29% +2.21%
2025-08-01 BMO 1.64 +4.9% +0.32% -1.79% -4.34%
2025-05-02 BMO 1.76 +1.2% +1.83% +0.41% +1.45%
2025-01-31 BMO 1.67 +7.9% +0.89% -2.50% -0.62%
2024-11-01 BMO 1.92 +2.1% +2.70% -1.57% +3.71%
2024-08-02 BMO 2.14 +6.5% -0.84% -0.06% +1.62%

Is XOM (XOM) overvalued right now?

XOM (XOM) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 22.1, sitting at the 89th percentile of its 5-year valuation history. A high percentile suggests the market is pricing the stock above its own historical norm — useful context before sizing a new position or selling premium against it.

XOM (XOM) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on XOM (XOM) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

XOM (XOM) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on XOM (XOM), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

XOM (XOM) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on XOM (XOM) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does XOM show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show XOM's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's XOM page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.