MRK (MRK)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Neutral

MRK stays NEUTRAL because the stock trades 57.7% above its floor but lacks clear valuation anchors and shows no red alerts to tip the scale.

  • The current price of $111.38 sits well above the dividend floor of $81.14 and the EPV floor of $70.63, leaving a wide 57.7% gap to the buyzone.
  • No valuation data (PE, PB, or PS) is available, and the PE label is null, so there is no earnings-based signal to confirm whether the stock is cheap or expensive at this level.
  • With zero red alerts and the buyzone bucket labeled 'far,' the stock is not in an actionable buy or sell zone, reinforcing a neutral stance.
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

$111.38 $70.63 engine floor
far above at floor

MRK is far above the floor (~57.7% above) — adding here means paying a premium vs. your own threshold. Wait or take partial position only with a strong directional view.

Macro context

Across past macro events, MRK 5d reaction has been net positive +0.5%
13 event categories · 107 samples · 60 up / 41 down · macro-beta evidence only
Per-category detail · macro beta breakdown
fed-fomc-rate-cycle → avg 5d +1.0% 12 samples · 6 up / 4 down
taiwan-strait-tension → avg 5d +2.6% 12 samples · 8 up / 4 down
oil-shock → avg 5d -0.0% 10 samples · 5 up / 4 down
us-china-tariff-escalation → avg 5d +1.0% 10 samples · 8 up / 2 down
big-ipo-event → avg 5d -0.4% 9 samples · 3 up / 5 down
bank-crisis → avg 5d -0.4% 8 samples · 3 up / 5 down
big-tech-earnings-shock → avg 5d -1.7% 7 samples · 3 up / 4 down
election-uncertainty → avg 5d -2.4% 7 samples · 2 up / 4 down
natural-disaster → avg 5d +1.0% 7 samples · 4 up / 3 down
pandemic-emergency → avg 5d +0.4% 7 samples · 4 up / 2 down
sovereign-debt-crisis → avg 5d +0.1% 7 samples · 4 up / 3 down
china-property-crisis → avg 5d +2.6% 6 samples · 5 up / 1 down
russia-ukraine-war → avg 5d +2.7% 5 samples · 5 up / 0 down
Vs sector ETF (XLV, 5d)
-3.2pp lagging sector
MRK -5.9% Sector benchmark XLV -2.7%
Macro-beta evidence: how this ticker historically reacted to broad macro shocks. Not a thesis-level call — for that, you have to read the news and decide.

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

Sign in to see which rules are firing on MRK in your portfolio.
Sign in

VALUATION

Valuation data not yet available for this ticker. Try again in a few minutes.

Floor Engine

ideal USD 111.38 Confidence medium
discount-to-floor: 1.58×
DIVIDEND high
USD 81.14
Yield reverts to historical 95th-percentile (extreme yield level)
VALUATION low
method skipped: stock is already pricing CHEAPER than its 5-year extreme — current PE 11.7× vs historical 5th-pct 11.8×. The PE-percentile formula gives 11.8× × EPS = 111.90, which is ABOVE the current price 111.38, making it a mean-reversion target (where the stock could rally TO), not a downside floor (where buyers would step in).
PE reverts to historical 5th-percentile (extreme undervaluation)
EPV high
USD 70.63
Zero-growth scenario + current cash/debt (Greenwald franchise value)
EPV GROWTH PREMIUM low
USD 124.66
EPV × franchise-value multiplier (compounder premium when ROIC > WACC)
PSR medium
USD 0.20
PSR reverts to historical 10th-percentile (growth stocks pre-stable-earnings)
High-growth, earnings not yet stable — PSR is the next-best anchor

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

Sign in to unlock →

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Volatility data not yet available — the daily scanner will populate it on the next run.

Earnings Reactions

MRK
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
-3.59%
Avg Day%
-2.67%
Up Hit Rate
0%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-08-04
in 55d
24-07
24-10
25-02
25-04
25-07
25-10
26-02
26-04
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-04-30 BMO -1.28 +13.2% -1.45% -1.60% +1.22%
2026-02-03 BMO 2.04 +1.5% -1.50% +2.18% +3.33%
2025-10-30 BMO 2.32 +12.8% -2.26% -0.35% -0.92%
2025-07-29 BMO 2.13 +5.0% -5.01% -1.70% -3.89%
2025-04-24 BMO 2.22 +4.0% -0.58% +1.40% +5.74%
2025-02-04 BMO 1.72 +3.3% -10.81% -9.07% -13.28%
2024-10-31 BMO 1.57 +0.0% -3.72% -2.39% -3.49%
2024-07-30 BMO 2.28 +6.3% -3.37% -9.81% -13.01%

Is MRK (MRK) overvalued right now?

Whether MRK (MRK) is overvalued depends on the lens you use: trailing P/E vs its own history, CAPE vs the broader market, earnings yield vs Treasury yields. We surface all three so you don't have to pick one in isolation.

MRK (MRK) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on MRK (MRK) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

MRK (MRK) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on MRK (MRK), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

MRK (MRK) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on MRK (MRK) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does MRK show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show MRK's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's MRK page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.