CVX (CVX)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Neutral

CVX is rated NEUTRAL because its valuation is historically expensive, the price sits well above estimated floor support, and volatility is elevated.

  • Trading at a PE of {$27.68} which is in the 85th percentile historically, flagged as expensive; the PB percentile is at an extreme 100.0%.
  • Current price of {$191.78} is 86.2% above its buyzone entry point and 1.86x above the valuation floor of {$102.98}, indicating limited margin of safety.
  • Implied volatility rank is high at 73.2%, suggesting above-average uncertainty despite zero red alerts.
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

$191.78 $102.98 engine floor
far above at floor

CVX is far above the floor (~86.2% above) — adding here means paying a premium vs. your own threshold. Wait or take partial position only with a strong directional view. valuation expensive (85th percentile)

Macro context

Across past macro events, CVX 5d reaction has been net positive +0.6%
13 event categories · 107 samples · 61 up / 37 down · macro-beta evidence only
Per-category detail · macro beta breakdown
fed-fomc-rate-cycle → avg 5d -0.4% 12 samples · 6 up / 6 down
taiwan-strait-tension → avg 5d +1.8% 12 samples · 8 up / 2 down
oil-shock → avg 5d +0.2% 10 samples · 5 up / 4 down
us-china-tariff-escalation → avg 5d -0.1% 10 samples · 5 up / 4 down
big-ipo-event → avg 5d -1.9% 9 samples · 2 up / 5 down
bank-crisis → avg 5d -0.2% 8 samples · 5 up / 3 down
big-tech-earnings-shock → avg 5d +0.3% 7 samples · 2 up / 4 down
election-uncertainty → avg 5d +2.3% 7 samples · 6 up / 1 down
natural-disaster → avg 5d +4.6% 7 samples · 7 up / 0 down
pandemic-emergency → avg 5d -3.1% 7 samples · 4 up / 2 down
sovereign-debt-crisis → avg 5d -0.5% 7 samples · 2 up / 4 down
china-property-crisis → avg 5d +3.0% 6 samples · 5 up / 1 down
russia-ukraine-war → avg 5d +5.4% 5 samples · 4 up / 1 down
Vs sector ETF (XLE, 5d)
-2.3pp lagging sector
CVX +0.8% Sector benchmark XLE +3.1%
Macro-beta evidence: how this ticker historically reacted to broad macro shocks. Not a thesis-level call — for that, you have to read the news and decide.

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

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VALUATION

Expensive
Trailing P/E
27.7
5-yr percentile: 85%
P/B
1.9
5-yr percentile: 100%
p10
8.9
p25
11.6
p50
14.2
p75
20.8
p90
34.3

① CVX is expensive based on a trailing P/E of 27.7x, which sits in the 85th historical percentile, well above the 10-year median of 14.2x. ② With earnings declining 24% and revenue down 8%, the forward P/E of 15.7x still prices in no near-term recovery, offering only a slim margin of safety. ③ The biggest risk is that continued weak earnings growth could compress the valuation further toward historical norms.

Sufficient earnings data; P/E historical percentile directly measures overvaluation or undervaluation

Floor Engine

marginal USD 191.78 Confidence low
discount-to-floor: 1.86×
VALUATION low
USD 102.98
PE reverts to historical 5th-percentile (extreme undervaluation)
PB medium
USD 69.25
P/B reverts to historical 10th-percentile (asset-driven businesses)
CYCLICAL PE medium
USD 150.75
PE reverts to historical 30th-percentile (cyclicals; 30th not 5th to avoid trough-bias)
Energy/materials cyclical — uses 30th-pct PE to avoid trough-bias

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 26.0% HV (30D) 26.9% IV RANK (1Y) 73 HIGH
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

CVX
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
+0.36%
Avg Day%
+0.22%
Up Hit Rate
62%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-07-31
in 51d
24-08
24-11
25-01
25-05
25-08
25-10
26-01
26-05
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-05-01 BMO 1.41 +45.6% -1.04% -1.39% -6.05%
2026-01-30 BMO 1.52 +5.2% +0.84% +3.34% +5.65%
2025-10-31 BMO 1.85 +8.4% +1.44% +2.74% +0.98%
2025-08-01 BMO 1.77 +1.7% +0.59% -0.16% +2.22%
2025-05-02 BMO 2.18 +1.3% +1.19% +1.64% +1.64%
2025-01-31 BMO 2.06 -2.3% -1.64% -4.56% -2.37%
2024-11-01 BMO 2.51 +3.9% +2.46% +2.86% +5.45%
2024-08-02 BMO 2.55 -14.9% -0.98% -2.67% -5.00%

Is CVX (CVX) overvalued right now?

CVX (CVX) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 27.7, sitting at the 85th percentile of its 5-year valuation history. A high percentile suggests the market is pricing the stock above its own historical norm — useful context before sizing a new position or selling premium against it.

CVX (CVX) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on CVX (CVX) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

CVX (CVX) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on CVX (CVX), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

CVX (CVX) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on CVX (CVX) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does CVX show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show CVX's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's CVX page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.