COST (COST)
COST earns a NEUTRAL bucket because the stock is far above its valuation floor and priced expensively, but volatility and floor confidence temper the risk.
- PE of $49.55 sits at the 81.5th percentile (expensive), and the stock trades 356.4% above the floor, far from any buy zone.
- Implied volatility is elevated (30.4%) with a 92.0% 1-year rank, reflecting high uncertainty despite zero red alerts.
- The floor has high confidence with three valid methods, anchored by a 2.77% recent-window dividend yield, preventing a bearish bucket.
BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal
COST is far above the floor (~356.4% above) — adding here means paying a premium vs. your own threshold. Wait or take partial position only with a strong directional view. valuation expensive (82th percentile)
Macro context
RULES & ALERTS FIRING
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VALUATION
Floor Engine
DIVIDEND USD 212.21、VALUATION USD 589.92、EPV USD 217.28）远低于当前价（< 40%），引擎判断这些方法的历史样本已被过时的定价区间主导（典型 re-rated 股票），回退到一个对 wheel/options 仓位更可执行的回撤型底价。Golden USD 676.15 ＝ ATH × (1 − 35%)（同一回撤方法，更浅档位）。
注：下方场景卡片显示的 DIVIDEND/VALUATION/EPV 数字是引擎仍计算了但未采纳的原始候选 — 保留可见以便审视引擎判断。
Glossary (click to expand)
- Forward P/E
- P/E using analysts' next-12-month EPS estimates. More forward-looking than trailing P/E, but exposed to forecast error.
- Trailing P/E
- P/E using actual EPS from the last 12 months. Distorted by one-time events (asset sales, impairments) until they roll out of the window.
- P/B (Price-to-Book)
- Stock price / book value per share. Meaningful for asset-driven sectors (banks, insurers); high values are normal for asset-light sectors (tech, consumer).
- PEG
- P/E ÷ earnings growth rate — \"how much P/E you pay per 1% of growth\". <1 = cheap-ish, >2 = priced-in.
- Regime-mismatch drawdown model
- When P/E distribution undergoes a structural shift (business transformation, sector re-rating), traditional \"revert to historical P/E percentile\" misleads. This model uses historical max drawdown × current EPS instead.
- EPV (Earnings Power Value)
- Greenwald framework: assume zero growth + current earning power is sustainable. Yields a conservative lower bound (asset + franchise value).
- Heuristic Fallback
- Backup estimator used when the primary method (P/E percentile, yield reversion, etc.) is unreliable due to data issues. **Lower confidence** — reference only, not auto-execute.
- Confidence
- Primary method applicable → high; multiple methods agree → medium; single heuristic fallback → low. Low confidence means review before acting.
YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT
○ anonymous· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price
· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds
· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio
IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Earnings Reactions
| Date | Time | EPS | Surprise | Gap% | Day% | Week% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | AMC | 4.93 | -0.8% | -0.87% | -3.91% | -2.34% |
| 2026-03-05 | AMC | 4.58 | +0.7% | -1.58% | +1.58% | +2.63% |
| 2025-12-11 | AMC | 4.50 | +5.5% | -0.13% | -0.00% | -3.26% |
| 2025-09-25 | AMC | 5.87 | +1.1% | -1.88% | -2.90% | -2.96% |
| 2025-05-29 | AMC | 4.28 | +0.9% | -0.64% | +3.12% | +0.61% |
| 2025-03-06 | AMC | 4.02 | -1.9% | -3.07% | -6.07% | -11.95% |
| 2024-12-12 | AMC | 4.04 | +6.3% | -0.75% | +0.10% | -3.47% |
| 2024-09-26 | AMC | 5.15 | +1.4% | -0.91% | -1.75% | -2.03% |
Is COST (COST) overvalued right now?
COST (COST) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 49.6, sitting at the 82th percentile of its 5-year valuation history. A high percentile suggests the market is pricing the stock above its own historical norm — useful context before sizing a new position or selling premium against it.
COST (COST) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?
Selling cash-secured puts on COST (COST) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.
COST (COST) — which option strategy fits your view?
If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on COST (COST), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.
COST (COST) — is now a good entry?
Entry timing on COST (COST) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.
FAQ
Why does COST show different P/E numbers on different sites?
Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.
Does this page show COST's implied volatility?
Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.
How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's COST page?
Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.