Serenity
@aleabitoreddit · x
448,000 followers
Last updated: 2026-06-10 03:24
● Live
Tracks public analysis and inferred viewpoints, not verified holdings or trades.
Active bullish views (20)
← click a row for full thesis history
| Ticker | Conviction (1-10) | Thesis | Action | Last seen | # views | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IQE | 8/10 | Controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics, set to benefit from AI capex growth. | — | 2026-05-25 | 6 | › |
| NBIS | 8/10 | AI capex is expected to flow to Neoclouds like NBIS as part of the AI infrastructure buildout. | — | 2026-05-25 | 18 | › |
| SNDK | 8/10 | Anticipated to benefit from substantial AI capex flowing into memory solutions. | — | 2026-05-25 | 3 | › |
| MU | 8/10 | Anticipated to benefit from substantial AI capex flowing into memory solutions. | — | 2026-05-25 | 11 | › |
| SOI | 8/10 | Controls silicon photonics for AI buildout, key to benefiting from significant AI capex. | — | 2026-05-26 | 27 | › |
| XFAB | 8/10 | XFAB's $1.45B valuation is a joke, given its leadership in Europe's silicon photonics supply chain efforts. | — | 2026-06-09 | 15 | › |
| AXTI | 7/10 | AXTI controls critical upstream materials and ~40% of the InP supply chain, giving it significant pricing power. | — | 2026-05-25 | 22 | › |
| MDTKY | 7/10 | MediaTek is expected to heavily outperform over the next two years. | — | 2026-06-05 | 1 | › |
| AAOI | 6/10 | AAOI's 800G/1.6T optical transceiver scale, US production, and tax credits are strong, though $600M dilution hurts near-term. | — | 2026-05-26 | 33 | › |
| TSEM | 6/10 | TSEM is favored for its foundry services, contributing to the broader semiconductor supply chain. | — | 2026-06-05 | 5 | › |
| SIVE | 5/10 | SIVE is a compelling Western CPO-related name, with its market cap significantly below $14B making it attractive. | — | 2026-05-26 | 118 | › |
| MSSCORP | 2/10 | Considers MSScorp a speculative 'lottery ticket' due to its potential for an inspection monopoly. | — | 2026-06-09 | 2 | › |
| LPK | — | LPK has performed favorably. | — | 2026-05-25 | 6 | › |
| ALRIB | — | ALRIB has performed well, gaining approximately 188% since the KOL initiated a long position. | — | 2026-05-25 | 3 | › |
| AEHR | — | Still bullish on AEHR, awaiting new volume orders as the next growth catalyst given no significant recent developments. | Reiterated | 2026-06-03 | 1 | › |
| ETHA | — | KOL bought ETHA for swing trading, not long-term holding, anticipating short-term price appreciation. | New | 2026-06-05 | 1 | › |
| ARM | — | Arm has shown substantial past growth, rising from $134 to $347. | — | 2026-06-08 | 4 | › |
| IBIT | — | KOL bought IBIT for swing trading, not long-term holding, anticipating short-term price appreciation. | New | 2026-06-08 | 2 | › |
| MTSI | — | MTSI's private placements are considered accretive when structured to wipe off old toxic debt. | — | 2026-06-08 | 4 | › |
| EWY | — | Operating profit projections for South Korean memory makers (via EWY) appear more realistic given the expected multi-year memory shortage driven by AI demand. | — | 2026-06-09 | 4 | › |
Active bearish views (5)
← click a row for full thesis history
| Ticker | Conviction (1-10) | Thesis | Action | Last seen | # views | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIMX | 6/10 | Faces long-term "design-out" risk due to potential vertical integration by giants like TSMC's Visera, despite short-term CPO opportunities.Original | — | 2026-05-25 | 5 | › |
| XLU | — | XLU faces headwinds as rate cut expectations, a key tailwind for utilities, have vanished due to geopolitical shifts. | Reiterated | 2026-05-25 | 6 | › |
| CRWV | — | CRWV faces significant value erosion due to high debt interest payments. | — | 2026-06-03 | 3 | › |
| COIN | — | Declining crypto prices negatively impact COIN's business, suggesting a bearish outlook. | — | 2026-06-05 | 2 | › |
| HOOD | — | Declining crypto prices negatively impact HOOD's business, suggesting a bearish outlook. | — | 2026-06-08 | 3 | › |
Reduced / Neutral views (49)
← click a row for full thesis history
| Ticker | Conviction (1-10) | Thesis | Action | Last seen | # views | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNHPF | — | KOL trusts their industry projections, viewing them as more reliable than a criticized analyst firm's reports. | — | 2026-06-10 | 1 | › |
| BKKT | — | Named as a stock whose criticism is met with aggressive defense from bots/influencers. | — | 2026-06-09 | 2 | › |
| SHUNSIN | — | Named as a company whose future performance is contingent on the volume ramp of Co-Packaged Optics (CPO). | — | 2026-06-09 | 1 | › |
| LRCX | — | LRCX is a semiconductor equipment company mentioned for its $400B market cap, which is outside the KOL's preferred $10-100B range. | — | 2026-06-09 | 1 | › |
| KLAC | — | KLAC is a semiconductor equipment company mentioned for its $275B market cap, which is outside the KOL's preferred $10-100B range. | — | 2026-06-09 | 1 | › |
| SKHYY | — | Mentioned as an underlying memory company whose stock increase contributed to the EWY volatility trade's success. | — | 2026-06-09 | 1 | › |
| SSNLF | — | Mentioned as an underlying memory company whose stock increase contributed to the EWY volatility trade's success. | — | 2026-06-09 | 1 | › |
| AMAT | — | Cited as a key partner for SKC Absolics in glass substrate development, indicating its role in advanced packaging materials. | — | 2026-06-08 | 1 | › |
| SHMD | 2/10 | Despite potential benefits from TSM's advancements, its financial health is considered 'pretty toxic'. | — | 2026-06-08 | 1 | › |
| SLNH | — | Named as a company whose 'shills' are exploited by predatory dilution practices exemplified by IREN. | — | 2026-06-08 | 1 | › |
| AMD | — | Potentially integrating SIVE into its CPO ecosystem. | — | 2026-06-08 | 7 | › |
| META | — | Noted as underperforming (down) since a previous mention. | — | 2026-06-08 | 5 | › |
| CRCL | — | Noted as underperforming (down) since a previous mention. | — | 2026-06-08 | 1 | › |
| MSFT | — | Named as a large hyperscaler customer with increasing capex spending, providing context for upstream semi supply chain growth. | — | 2026-06-06 | 3 | › |
| TSLA | — | Referenced as a potential mass producer of humanoid robots, illustrating the industry's future scale. | — | 2026-06-05 | 2 | › |
| AVGO | — | Named in media narratives regarding chip demand, which the KOL discredits as 'made up' in the context of the AI buildout. | — | 2026-06-05 | 6 | › |
| PL | — | Mentioned as a high-beta stock experiencing a significant price correction. | — | 2026-06-05 | 1 | › |
| AMZN | — | Cited as a hyperscaler developing ASICs (Trainium) that could reduce demand for NVIDIA GPUs. | — | 2026-06-05 | 4 | › |
| GOOGL | — | Cited as a hyperscaler developing ASICs (TPU) that could reduce demand for NVIDIA GPUs. | — | 2026-06-05 | 8 | › |
| POWI | — | Named as a leading customer of XFAB. | — | 2026-06-03 | 4 | › |
| NVTS | — | Named as a leading customer of XFAB. | — | 2026-06-03 | 5 | › |
| BROADCOM | — | Named as a potential user of Globalfoundries' platform where Sivers' lasers will be embedded. | — | 2026-06-03 | 1 | › |
| NVIDIA | — | Named as a potential user of Globalfoundries' platform where Sivers' lasers will be embedded. | — | 2026-06-03 | 1 | › |
| MARVELL | — | Named as a potential user of Globalfoundries' platform where Sivers' lasers will be embedded. | — | 2026-06-03 | 1 | › |
| BRK.A | — | Berkshire Hathaway is cited as contributing $10B to fund hyperscaler AI buildout. | — | 2026-06-02 | 1 | › |
| CIFR | — | CIFR is involved in Fluidstack deals with GOOGL and WULF to provide colocation for GOOGL's TPUs. | — | 2026-06-02 | 1 | › |
| WULF | — | WULF provides colocation for GOOGL's TPUs through Fluidstack deals involving CIFR. | — | 2026-06-02 | 1 | › |
| WOLF | — | Named as a power semiconductor peer that has recently seen significant stock price increases. | — | 2026-05-28 | 2 | › |
| VPG | — | Trimmed position in VPG due to design-out risk from customer TSLA, despite prior successful triple since thesis. | Trimmed | 2026-05-27 | 1 | › |
| RPI | — | Recounted as a past successful call, returning ~3x after retail sold, despite being labeled a 'Meme Stock'. | — | 2026-05-26 | 4 | › |
| RDDT | — | Named in a rhetorical comparison regarding investor intelligence. | — | 2026-05-25 | 5 | › |
| IREN | — | Named in a rhetorical comparison regarding investor intelligence. | — | 2026-05-25 | 7 | › |
| RKLB | — | KOL expects the company to still exist by 2029, suggesting a long-term holding strategy for existing positions. | — | 2026-05-25 | 4 | › |
| INTC | — | Mentioned as an indirect exposure for robotics through edge CPUs. | — | 2026-05-25 | 13 | › |
| FOCI | — | FOCI's focused model for TSM/NVDA supplies optical components and FAU, driving re-rating but likely limiting its path to a $50B+ valuation. | — | 2026-05-25 | 5 | › |
| YSS | — | Named as a downstream customer of Sivers in Golden Dome supply chains. | — | 2026-05-25 | 5 | › |
| ERIC | — | Noted as a beneficiary of the US and Sweden technology Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). | — | 2026-05-25 | 4 | › |
| COHR | — | Cited as an example of a company that Sivers could emulate for future vertical integration. | — | 2026-05-25 | 7 | › |
| TSM | — | Named as a downstream customer that uses optical components and FAUs from FOCI. | — | 2026-05-25 | 10 | › |
| LITE | — | LITE's single high-power laser has a distinct architecture from a multi-channel array, making direct comparisons based on LLMs misguided. | — | 2026-05-25 | 26 | › |
| GFS | — | GFS is cited as a key foundry partner for scaling IP development without significant capital expenditure or increased headcount. | — | 2026-05-25 | 15 | › |
| POET | — | Mentioned as a company with a more concentrated customer base, in contrast to SIVE's broad market presence. | — | 2026-05-25 | 12 | › |
| JBL | — | Named as a downstream customer of SIVE for CPO/1.6T applications. | — | 2026-05-25 | 29 | › |
| AAPL | — | Named as a downstream customer of SIVE in various frontier industries. | — | 2026-05-25 | 5 | › |
| NOK | — | Named as a downstream customer of SIVE, supplying critical components. | — | 2026-05-25 | 12 | › |
| RTX | — | Named as a US defense contractor and a downstream customer of SIVE. | — | 2026-05-25 | 5 | › |
| AEVA | — | Named as a downstream customer of SIVE, providing components for self-driving architectural standards. | — | 2026-05-25 | 4 | › |
| NVDA | — | Named as a customer influenced by components supplied through AEVA from SIVE for self-driving architectures. | — | 2026-05-25 | 45 | › |
| MRVL | — | Named as a downstream supplier to hyperscalers, potentially receiving components from the SIVE supply chain. | — | 2026-05-25 | 27 | › |
Recent posts
确实如此！如果你不能将整个光通信产业链脱口而出，从上游的InP（磷化铟）衬底，
路向下游直到光模块成品制造商…
那说明你读我写的东西还不够多。
不过，很高兴看到我关于 $SOI 或 $AAOI 的许多观点，能帮助大家建立起属于自己的投资信念与逻辑。
SOI · mention
AAOI · mention
@Redpulse_News I personally don’t really see any other compelling Western CPO related name under $14B MC right now.
$SIVE is still sub $2.7B MC.
SIVE · bull 5/10
When I do my supply chain mapping... $SIVE is just so critically important to so many frontier industries.
I'm not sure people are fully aware yet.
$SIVE -> $AAPL, $NOK, $RTX (us defense contractrs), $YSS (golden dome). Not including Ericcson + others.
Then you have $SIVE -> $AEVA -> Boston Dyn…
YSS · mention
SIVE · bull 8/10
AAPL · mention
NOK · mention
RTX · mention
AEVA · mention
NVDA · mention
POET · mention
JBL · mention
MRVL · mention
@Jimmy4466597097 ~1/4th of their entire company are PHDs. Sivers is primarily doing novel IP development.
Then using $GFS / Win to scale without capex + or needing headcount.
You would need a lot of more headcount for stuff like assembly (without doctorates).
SIVBF · bull
GFS · mention
Fun fact: Lot of the same companies are often used across different supply chains.
One likely example is: $SIVE as the upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via:
Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW (CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics.
I actually personally liked Aeva for 4D AI first.
Just s…
VPG · mention
SIVE · bull 6/10
AEVA · mention
NVDA · mention
MU · mention
INTC · mention
$SIVE (laser), Foci (fau/optical components), Shunsin (packaging/test), MSSCorp (yields) are personally my favorites right now for CPO related stuff.
Since they all basically go from 0 to 100 full steam ahead in the next 2 years.
SIVE · bull 8/10
@Fletche33881557 Nope, $NVDA said $3-4T annual spend. Not value. https://t.co/sKg5gA2RZO
NVDA · mention
You're comparing Sumitomo finished InP substrates vs AXT.
$AXTI owns many many material chokepoints upstream required to make the finished substrates. And they're roughly ~40% of the entire InP supply chain like indium/gallium/precursors to pBN crucibles + processing.
It's a materials problem, t…
AXTI · bull 7/10
Sun May 24 18:39
Open original →
AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections.
You're not bullish enough.
And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom:
-> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics.
-> $SOI controls the AI…
NVDA · mention
AXTI · bull 8/10
SOI · bull 8/10
SIVE · bull 8/10
IQE · bull 8/10
NBIS · bull 8/10
MU · bull 8/10
SNDK · bull 8/10
Sun May 24 15:56
Open original →
All right chat, crowdsourcing your #1 highest conviction (10x only) stock long for the Power Semi trade.
Especially given $NVDA pushing shift to 800 VDC.
Stuff like $NVTS or $WOLF, but high-beta, 10x potential only. Anywhere around the world.
What's your pick? https://t.co/Y10KR6HLVC
NVDA · mention
NVTS · mention
WOLF · mention
哪里的话，应该是我谢谢你们愿意花时间看我的内容！
最近涨了这么多中文粉丝，我真的特别开心。感觉这两天差不多就涨了快三万粉？
原来 X 上的中文圈比我想象的要大得多啊！感觉以后多跟大家互动、交流交流想法，肯定会特别有意思。
@PhotonCap Yep spot on, there’s a lot of nuance in more advanced fields that AI doesn’t fully understand and often miss.
So being overconfident about the output while comparing two vastly different things is not ideal
I’m not selling a single share of $SIVE.
I personally think it’s a once-a-generation long given how many hyperscaler suppliers they’re already in.
Coupled with GS extreme TAM expansion projections for both pluggables and CPO in the next 2 years.
If you didn’t read the $JBL fireside transcript by …
LITE · mention
MTSI · mention
SIVE · bull (reiterate) 10/10
JBL · mention
@ShortsHoward So this is exactly what I mean by using ChatGPT will make you miss the nuances:
They're literally different architectures.
People using LLMs to compare $LITE single high power laser to one of the channel's outputs in a multi-channel array don't what they're talking about.
LITE · mention
@doomdayer Thanks! Yeah always fun to have those argument with $AXTI + inp substrates back at $15 with all your random retail investors who have 0 knowledge.
Then it just happens to show up in all your Goldman Sachs/JPM analyst reports today as a bottleneck.
AXTI · bull (reiterate)
Yes $AAOI has the end-to-end manufacturing scale for 800G/1.6T optical transceivers in a time where hyperscalers will buy anything $AAOI or optical players can make.
The fact they're trying to do it all in America + receive tax credits (eg. Texas) should give it premiums.
Just annoying there's …
AAOI · bull 6/10
I like Elon, but he probably doesn't know yet that the X Subscriber program is one of the shadiest things I've ever used...
-> There's unknown currency rounding (lot of times 2x+ more sub price), where X is unable to say where who profits off that.
-> Monthly payouts keep getting pushed back by m…
Not much actually. Close to 0 transparency to creators over where things actually go.
There's a lot of rounding where people are paying close to 2x more, which disappears into the void.
Don't know how much X takes or what fees they actually charge, even though they cite T&S all the time.
Not he…
Sun May 24 00:25
Open original →
Wow, I've reached 30,000 paid subscribers.
Thank you everyone! Catching up to Elon Musk.
Only 17,000 more to go...
Then I reach my goal of becoming #1 on the entire X platform! https://t.co/TStifVRgG9
Sat May 23 18:45
Open original →
I love how pointing out that ideas and market percentage validation.
Matter more than net worth.
Triggered all the “trust me I’m rich” grifters selling expensive paywalls or courses.
It’s good retail is starting to wake up if the older models feel threatened.
@ncs1912 Because I care more about novel ideas and if they get validated in markets.
If someone with $4000 had a great idea about $SOI before anyone else found it.
Then Soitec goes up 4x. That's more valuable to me/others than if someone with a large account $10M off a 1% return.
SOI · mention
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter.
What matters is return %. Speaking of that...
YTD: 3840.39%.
I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe.
Do you remember these thesis anon?
1. $AXTI
2. $SIVE
3. $AAOI
4. $LITE
5…
@TracyDawso73672 恭喜你获得了 540% 的收益！出于好奇，你最后选了哪些股票？
华人社区最近的赞誉让我感到受宠若惊！
我认为任何空头被打爆，都只是我单纯喜欢像 $AAOI 这样的股票而产生的无意间的副作用。
希望也能与更多的华人社区朋友互动（最近我在 X 上跟日本和韩国的网友互动得比较多）。
AAOI · bull 6/10
@BarclaysBankers ~$64.5M USD of brand new buying pressure from Blackrock and other institutions.
"Are you expecting the price to drop?" what
@GSEconomics Majority of the inflow comes passively.
Blackrock is the significant inflow tracker of the NASDAQ index.
@knedoycap There's around ~$47M from MSCI index for $SIVE. And ~$15-20M from the new NASDAQ Stockholm index inclusion.
So ~$64.5M of pure institutional buying pressure next month. Given ~17% of FF is shorted too, add that to buying pressure if they cover.
SIVE · bull 6/10
Wow, NASDAQ just added $SIVE to its Stockholm index.
This is est. to be around ~$15-20M worth of passive inflow, with strict ETF-only being around ~$.5M.
We’re able to see a lot of institutional inflow into Sivers, as this is on top of the MSCI index inclusion EOM. https://t.co/qHYeT8b3Ja
SIVE · bull
Sat May 23 10:22
Open original →
People in Sweden always like:
“How does $SIVE have so little employees and can do all of this” vs. $LITE?
Turns out… You can build the most valuable IP in the world if ~1/4th your entire workforce are PHDs. https://t.co/oVlJJ9OEaZ
SIVE · bull
LITE · mention
@_juicebox99_ I don't see FOCI becoming a $50B+ company.
They focus on one thing like optical components + FAU for $TSM / $NVDA, then do it at scale. So that would likely drives structural re-rating related to MC.
Not quite the same as the US model of TAM expanding into $100B+ companies.
FOCI · bear 6/10
TSM · mention
NVDA · mention